Photo: Arne Müseler / www.arne-mueseler.com, CC BY-SA 3.0| Minute | Side | Scorer | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55' | home | Felix Nmecha | 1-0 |
| 71' | home | Felix Nmecha | 2-0 |
| 81' | away | Noel Futkeu | 2-1 |
Win probability from OneTouch's in-running model (CC-LIVE-1.2+prior): score and clock only, from our pre-match call. Not xG.
Forecast Verdict
Top pick correctWe said
Model at kick-off: BVB 74% · Draw 16% · ELV 10%
Actual
OneTouch Forecast · dc-v2.0
Borussia Dortmund won; our pre-match call put the chance of that at 72%. Borussia Dortmund had more shots (19–16) but fewer on target (6–7).
Pre-match call frozen 7 Nov 2026 · model dc-v2.0
Tactical shift
Felix Nmecha
Booked
22'
Maximilian Beier
On for Carney Chukwuemeka
34'
Florian Le Joncour
On for Lukas Finn Pinckert
37'
Felix Nmecha
Assist · Fábio Silva
55'
1–0
Fábio Silva
Booked
60'
Lasse Günther
Booked
65'
Julian Ryerson
On for Konstantinos Karetsas
67'
Cole Campbell
On for Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka
67'
Felix Nmecha
Assist · Maximilian Beier
71'
2–0
Waldemar Anton
Booked
76'
Nicholas Mickelson
On for Luca Sirch
78'
Noel Futkeu
Assist · Florian Le Joncour
81'
2–1
Ratings are out of 10. marks an OneTouch estimate, not a confirmed grade. Tap a player for details.
Match DNA
Transition Warfare
The match swung on turnovers. Moments of transition were the only moments that mattered.
35 shots
Expected goals over time
accuracy · 32%
kill rate · 11%
accuracy · 44%
kill rate · 6%
Borussia Dortmund turned 11% of shots into goals to SV Elversberg's 6%.
Shots on Target
Attack
xG · BSD
League Standing
BundesligaKey context
Venue
Signal Iduna Park
Kick-off
7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
Referee
Harm Osmers
Germany · 3.9 yellows/match
Arena 3D
Pitch-level coverage: the ball follows the real on-pitch action.
Desk Stories
