Monthly Calibration · October 2026
How the forecast did last month
The model’s scorecard for October 2026. Hit rate, mid-tier accuracy, and the calls we got wrong with confidence.
In October 2026, OneTouch forecast 176 matches. Our highest-probability outcome was the eventual result 53% of the time.
Mid-tier forecasts (40–60% favourites) landed 52% across 103 matches.
Only 6 matches had a heavy favourite (75%+), too few to rate.
Hit rate by confidence
| Band | Matches | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0-40% | 41 | 46% |
| 40-60% | 103 | 52% |
| 60-75% | 26 | 54% |
| 75-100% | 6 | Too few to rate |
A band is rated once it has 20 graded matches.
Confidently wrong · 3 matches
How to read this
Hit rate is the model’s top-pick accuracy in each probability band. A 60% favourite band that lands at 60% is calibrated. We track Brier (mean squared error against the result) and log loss separately — methodology.
Brier mean 0.608Log loss 1.012Model dc-v2.0, dc-v2.0+cup