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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded502
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongLeganés v Burgos3–1
    Segunda DivisionWe said Away win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.76513 Nov 2026
  2. WrongCD Sabadell v Real Sociedad II0–0
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 58%Result DrawBrier 0.9299 Nov 2026
  3. WrongLeón v Guadalajara1–1
    Liga MxWe said Away win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.7949 Nov 2026
  4. WrongQuerétaro v Puebla0–2
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.6928 Nov 2026
  5. WrongCentral Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) v Lanús1–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 53%Result DrawBrier 0.8298 Nov 2026
  6. RightRio Ave v Braga0–1
    Primeira LigaWe said Away win at 60%Result Away winBrier 0.2498 Nov 2026
  7. RightEstrela v Benfica2–3
    Primeira LigaWe said Away win at 74%Result Away winBrier 0.1098 Nov 2026
  8. RightAtlético Madrid v Barcelona1–2
    La LigaWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.4468 Nov 2026
  9. WrongLens v Marseille1–2
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.7338 Nov 2026
  10. WrongFiorentina v Juventus2–2
    Serie AWe said Away win at 41%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.7288 Nov 2026
  11. WrongFC Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen2–3
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.6008 Nov 2026
  12. RightTSG Hoffenheim v Schalke 042–1
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.2928 Nov 2026
  13. RightVicenza v Cremonese1–4
    Serie BWe said Away win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.4198 Nov 2026
  14. RightSint-Truidense v Zulte-Waregem4–1
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.3718 Nov 2026
  15. RightBesiktas v Genclerbirligi3–0
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 79%Result Home winBrier 0.0718 Nov 2026
  16. RightVitória de Guimaraes v FC Porto1–2
    Primeira LigaWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.4658 Nov 2026
  17. RightUnion St.-Gilloise v Racing Genk1–0
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 63%Result Home winBrier 0.2068 Nov 2026
  18. RightVillarreal v Getafe2–0
    La LigaWe said Home win at 65%Result Home winBrier 0.1978 Nov 2026
  19. WrongSporting Gijón v Real Valladolid1–2
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.9028 Nov 2026
  20. WrongCelta Vigo v Levante0–0
    La LigaWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.8178 Nov 2026
  21. RightInternazionale v Como2–0
    Serie AWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.3788 Nov 2026
  22. WrongManchester United v Aston Villa4–4
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.8088 Nov 2026
  23. RightSC Freiburg v 1. FC Union Berlin2–0
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 77%Result Home winBrier 0.0858 Nov 2026
  24. WrongCarrarese v Sampdoria0–1
    Serie BWe said Home win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.9608 Nov 2026
  25. WrongLe Mans v AS Monaco1–1
    Ligue 1We said Away win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.8538 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.