Igor Julio
Booked
31'
Forecast Verdict
Top pick missedWe said
Actual
OneTouch Forecast · dc-v1.15
It finished level; our pre-match call put the chance of that at 28%. Derby County had more shots (16–6) and more on target (6–2).
Pre-match call frozen 19 Sept 2026 · model dc-v1.15
Igor Julio
Booked
31'
Zeki Amdouni
Assist · Lucas Pires
34'
1–0
Anel Ahmedhodzic
Booked
56'
Largie Ramazani
On for Marcus Edwards
61'
Oscar Fraulo
On for Alex Mowatt
66'
David Ozoh
Booked
67'
Josh Laurent
Booked
68'
Jamie Vardy
On for Zeki Amdouni
73'
Rhian Brewster
On for David Ozoh
78'
Corey Taylor
On for Charlie Taylor
82'
Ugo Raghouber
Booked
86'
Corey Taylor
Booked
87'
Oliver Sonne
On for Lucas Pires
89'
Mohammed Fuseini
Assist · Rhian Brewster
93'
1–1
Ratings are out of 10. marks an OneTouch estimate, not a confirmed grade. Tap a player for details.
Match DNA
Transition Warfare
The match swung on turnovers. Moments of transition were the only moments that mattered.
23 shots
Expected goals over time
accuracy · 33%
kill rate · 17%
accuracy · 38%
kill rate · 6%
Burnley turned 17% of shots into goals to Derby County's 6%.
Shots on Target
Attack
xG · BSD
Head to Head
League Standing
ChampionshipKey context
Venue
Turf Moor
Kick-off
19 Sept · 14:00 UTC
Referee
Steve Martin
England · 5.0 yellows/match
Arena 3D
Pitch-level coverage: the ball follows the real on-pitch action.