Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre — build-up and preview.
Kickoff
Sun · 10:15 PM
Venue
Diego Armando Maradona
Expected goals · AJU 1.2 · TIG 0.7 · 1.9 total
AJU's attack (1.00x the league average) against TIG's defence (0.91x (tighter than average)) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for AJU's win chance, the blue ones for TIG's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| AJU goals | TIG 0 | TIG 1 | TIG 2 | TIG 3 | TIG 4 | TIG 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJU 0 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 1 | 17% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 2 | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 3 | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
AJU 48.3% · Draw 31.2% · TIG 20.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Argentinos Juniors have the edge at 48% — enough to favour them, not enough to feel certain.
Scoreline distribution weights toward single-goal outcomes — 1-0 and 0-0 combined cover 32% of likely results.
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
how each side performs at their ground
AJU scores +0.20 more per 90
AJU concedes 0.12 fewer per 90
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
Card profiles need a season sample
Yellow and red cards per game — measured against the league average — appear once both clubs have built a meaningful sample.
No table for this competition
Knockout and friendly fixtures aren't ranked by a league standing — table position and stakes show for league matches.
Shots on target, shot conversion, and xG lift will appear here once the match ends.
