Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente
21 Nov · 20:00 UTC
Diego Armando Maradona
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 09:37 UTC · 9 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
AJU 43%Draw 32%IND 26%
Expected goals · AJU 1.2 · IND 0.8 · 2.0 total
AJU's attack (0.98x, below the league average) against IND's defence (0.88x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for AJU's win chance, the blue ones for IND's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| AJU goals | IND 0 | IND 1 | IND 2 | IND 3 | IND 4 | IND 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJU 0 | 14% | 10% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 1 | 15% | 14% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 2 | 9% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 3 | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJU 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
AJU 42.7% · Draw 31.7% · IND 25.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Argentinos Juniors have the edge at 43% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Scoreline distribution weights toward single-goal outcomes — 1-0 and 0-0 combined cover 29% of likely results.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
AJU
4-3-3Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.560%
OVER 2.533%
OVER 3.514%
BTTS40%
AJU CLEAN SHEET43%
IND CLEAN SHEET31%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
AJU
IND
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
AJU
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 0–2 last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1IND
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
6
points · W1 D3 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.22SCORED · PER 90
AJU
1.18
LEAGUE1.22
IND
1.15
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
AJU
0.83
LEAGUE1.22
IND
1.16
AJU concedes 0.33 fewer per 90
