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Gimnasia La Plata vs Newell's Old Boys
23 Nov · 20:00 UTC
Juan Carmelo Zerillo (El Bosque)
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 23:01 UTC · 11 NovGLP 50%Draw 28%NOB 22%
Expected goals · GLP 1.5 · NOB 0.9 · 2.4 total
GLP's attack (1.14x the league average) against NOB's defence (0.95x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for GLP's win chance, the blue ones for NOB's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| GLP goals | NOB 0 | NOB 1 | NOB 2 | NOB 3 | NOB 4 | NOB 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLP 0 | 10% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GLP 1 | 13% | 13% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| GLP 2 | 10% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GLP 3 | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GLP 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| GLP 5 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
GLP 49.9% · Draw 28.0% · NOB 22.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Gimnasia La Plata have the edge at 50% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Gimnasia La Plata's home advantage is the separator — they score 1.4/game there, Newell's Old Boys concede 1.1/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
GLP
4-2-3-1NOB
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.569%
OVER 2.542%
OVER 3.521%
BTTS46%
GLP CLEAN SHEET41%
NOB CLEAN SHEET23%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
GLP
NOB
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
GLP
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0NOB
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
6
points · W1 D3 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.22SCORED · PER 90
GLP
1.38
LEAGUE1.22
NOB
0.98
GLP scores +0.40 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
GLP
1.19
LEAGUE1.22
NOB
1.10
NOB concedes 0.09 fewer per 90