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Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia
26 Nov · 00:00 UTC
Alberto José Armando (La Bombonera)
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 09:37 UTC · 9 NovBJU 57%Draw 28%RIV 15%
Expected goals · BJU 1.5 · RIV 0.6 · 2.1 total
BJU's attack (1.08x the league average) against RIV's defence (1.01x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.9.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BJU's win chance, the blue ones for RIV's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BJU goals | RIV 0 | RIV 1 | RIV 2 | RIV 3 | RIV 4 | RIV 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJU 0 | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BJU 1 | 17% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BJU 2 | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BJU 3 | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BJU 4 | 2% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BJU 5 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BJU 57.0% · Draw 27.7% · RIV 15.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Boca Juniors should control this — 57% win probability and 1.5 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Scoreline distribution points to a comfortable win — Boca Juniors to score 2+ sits at 44%.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BJU
4-3-3RIV
4-3-1-2Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.563%
OVER 2.536%
OVER 3.516%
BTTS37%
BJU CLEAN SHEET53%
RIV CLEAN SHEET23%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BJU
RIV
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BJU
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
3
games without concedingLAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0RIV
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.22SCORED · PER 90
BJU
1.49
LEAGUE1.22
RIV
1.50
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
BJU
0.79
LEAGUE1.22
RIV
1.34
BJU concedes 0.55 fewer per 90
