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Defensa y Justicia vs Barracas Central
21 Nov · 18:00 UTC
Norberto Tomaghello
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:20 UTC · 10 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
DYJ 38%Draw 32%BAR 30%
Expected goals · DYJ 1.1 · BAR 0.9 · 2.0 total
DYJ's attack (0.96x, below the league average) against BAR's defence (0.82x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for DYJ's win chance, the blue ones for BAR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| DYJ goals | BAR 0 | BAR 1 | BAR 2 | BAR 3 | BAR 4 | BAR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DYJ 0 | 15% | 12% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| DYJ 1 | 14% | 14% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| DYJ 2 | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| DYJ 3 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| DYJ 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| DYJ 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
DYJ 37.9% · Draw 32.5% · BAR 29.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
This looks level with over 2.5 goals at 32% — open but no clear winner.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 32% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 0-0.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
DYJ
4-2-3-1BAR
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.560%
OVER 2.532%
OVER 3.514%
BTTS40%
DYJ CLEAN SHEET40%
BAR CLEAN SHEET34%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
DYJ
BAR
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
DYJ
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2BAR
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.22SCORED · PER 90
DYJ
1.24
LEAGUE1.22
BAR
1.05
DYJ scores +0.19 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
DYJ
1.08
LEAGUE1.22
BAR
0.87
BAR concedes 0.21 fewer per 90
