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Rosario Central vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)
22 Nov · 19:00 UTC
Gigante de Arroyito
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 02:31 UTC · 11 NovROS 63%Draw 24%GMZ 13%
Expected goals · ROS 1.7 · GMZ 0.6 · 2.3 total
ROS's attack (1.21x the league average) against GMZ's defence (1.05x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.1.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ROS's win chance, the blue ones for GMZ's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ROS goals | GMZ 0 | GMZ 1 | GMZ 2 | GMZ 3 | GMZ 4 | GMZ 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROS 0 | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROS 1 | 16% | 11% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROS 2 | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROS 3 | 8% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROS 4 | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROS 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ROS 62.9% · Draw 24.3% · GMZ 12.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.8%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Rosario Central should control this — 63% win probability and 1.5 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.7 vs 0.6 leaves little room for Gimnasia (Mendoza) to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
Rosario Central are on a 5-match winning streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A RUN · ROS5 wins in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
ROS
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.569%
OVER 2.542%
OVER 3.521%
BTTS39%
ROS CLEAN SHEET53%
GMZ CLEAN SHEET18%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ROS
GMZ
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ROS
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
15
points · W5 D0 L0GMZ
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.22SCORED · PER 90
ROS
1.53
LEAGUE1.22
GMZ
1.02
ROS scores +0.51 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ROS
0.85
LEAGUE1.22
GMZ
1.20
ROS concedes 0.35 fewer per 90