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Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano (Córdoba)
20 Nov · 23:00 UTC
José Amalfitani
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 05:38 UTC · 11 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
VEL 39%Draw 33%BEL 28%
Expected goals · VEL 1.1 · BEL 0.9 · 2.0 total
VEL's attack (1.03x the league average) against BEL's defence (0.76x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for VEL's win chance, the blue ones for BEL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| VEL goals | BEL 0 | BEL 1 | BEL 2 | BEL 3 | BEL 4 | BEL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VEL 0 | 15% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| VEL 1 | 15% | 14% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| VEL 2 | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| VEL 3 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| VEL 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| VEL 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
VEL 38.6% · Draw 32.9% · BEL 28.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
This looks level with over 2.5 goals at 30% — open but no clear winner.
THE ANGLE
Both defences have been solid enough to make this tight — combined expected goals under 1.9 leaves narrow margins.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
VEL
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.558%
OVER 2.530%
OVER 3.513%
BTTS39%
VEL CLEAN SHEET42%
BEL CLEAN SHEET35%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
VEL
BEL
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
VEL
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 0–2 last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2BEL
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 1–2 last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.22SCORED · PER 90
VEL
1.36
LEAGUE1.22
BEL
1.13
VEL scores +0.23 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
VEL
0.99
LEAGUE1.22
BEL
0.91
BEL concedes 0.08 fewer per 90