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River Plate vs Lanús
22 Nov · 22:00 UTC
Estadio Más Monumental
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:51 UTC · 11 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
RIV 39%Draw 32%LAN 29%
Expected goals · RIV 1.1 · LAN 0.9 · 2.0 total
RIV's attack (1.09x the league average) against LAN's defence (0.77x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for RIV's win chance, the blue ones for LAN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| RIV goals | LAN 0 | LAN 1 | LAN 2 | LAN 3 | LAN 4 | LAN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIV 0 | 14% | 11% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| RIV 1 | 14% | 14% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| RIV 2 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| RIV 3 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| RIV 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| RIV 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
RIV 39.4% · Draw 31.7% · LAN 28.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
This looks level with over 2.5 goals at 34% — open but no clear winner.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 32% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 1-1.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
RIV
4-3-1-2Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.562%
OVER 2.534%
OVER 3.515%
BTTS42%
RIV CLEAN SHEET39%
LAN CLEAN SHEET32%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
RIV
LAN
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
RIV
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1LAN
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
9
points · W2 D3 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.22SCORED · PER 90
RIV
1.40
LEAGUE1.22
LAN
1.12
RIV scores +0.28 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
RIV
0.85
LEAGUE1.22
LAN
0.81
Defences level on season average