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Union St.-Gilloise vs KAA Gent
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 16:05 UTC · 15 NovUSG 47%Draw 28%KGE 25%
Expected goals · USG 1.4 · KGE 1.0 · 2.4 total
USG's attack (1.33x the league average) against KGE's defence (0.68x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for USG's win chance, the blue ones for KGE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| USG goals | KGE 0 | KGE 1 | KGE 2 | KGE 3 | KGE 4 | KGE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USG 0 | 10% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| USG 1 | 12% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| USG 2 | 9% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| USG 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| USG 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| USG 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
USG 47.0% · Draw 28.1% · KGE 25.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Union St.-Gilloise have the edge at 47% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Union St.-Gilloise are favoured but the draw at 28% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
USG
3-1-4-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Union St.-Gilloise
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 10 Jun
KAA Gent
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 10 Jun
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.571%
OVER 2.544%
OVER 3.523%
BTTS49%
USG CLEAN SHEET37%
KGE CLEAN SHEET24%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
USG
KGE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
USG
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0KGE
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.42SCORED · PER 90
USG
2.70
LEAGUE1.42
KGE
1.81
USG scores +0.89 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
USG
0.65
LEAGUE1.42
KGE
0.55
KGE concedes 0.10 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
USG
1st
Leading the table on 29 points.
KGE
3rd
On 28 points.
USG sit 2 places higher in the table