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Cercle Brugge KSV vs KV Mechelen
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 23:36 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
CBK 38%Draw 28%KVM 34%
Expected goals · CBK 1.4 · KVM 1.3 · 2.7 total
Expected goals are close (1.4 vs 1.3) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CBK's win chance, the blue ones for KVM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CBK goals | KVM 0 | KVM 1 | KVM 2 | KVM 3 | KVM 4 | KVM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBK 0 | 8% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CBK 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| CBK 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CBK 3 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CBK 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CBK 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CBK 38.2% · Draw 27.6% · KVM 34.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Neither team separates themselves here — 38% for the slight favourite, 28% for the draw.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 28% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 1-1.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CBK
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.575%
OVER 2.549%
OVER 3.527%
BTTS54%
CBK CLEAN SHEET28%
KVM CLEAN SHEET26%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CBK
KVM
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CBK
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3KVM
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 0–2 last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.42SCORED · PER 90
CBK
1.28
LEAGUE1.42
KVM
1.21
CBK scores +0.07 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CBK
1.99
LEAGUE1.42
KVM
1.77
KVM concedes 0.22 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
CBK
16th
On 9 points.
KVM
11th
On 12 points.
KVM sit 5 places higher in the table
