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KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:12 UTC · 12 NovKVK 9%Draw 17%USG 75%
Expected goals · KVK 0.7 · USG 2.4 · 3.1 total
USG's attack (1.64x the league average) against KVK's defence (1.21x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for KVK's win chance, the blue ones for USG's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| KVK goals | USG 0 | USG 1 | USG 2 | USG 3 | USG 4 | USG 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KVK 0 | 5% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 3% |
| KVK 1 | 3% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 2% |
| KVK 2 | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| KVK 3 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| KVK 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| KVK 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
KVK 8.6% · Draw 16.6% · USG 74.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (3.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Union St.-Gilloise should control this — 75% win probability and 2.7 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
KV Kortrijk concede 2.0 per game on the model's weighted record, and Union St.-Gilloise's most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 13%.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
KVK
4-3-3Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Union St.-Gilloise
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 10 Jun
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.583%
OVER 2.561%
OVER 3.539%
BTTS47%
KVK CLEAN SHEET9%
USG CLEAN SHEET49%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
KVK
USG
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
KVK
LOSING RUN
2
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3USG
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.42SCORED · PER 90
KVK
0.38
LEAGUE1.42
USG
2.70
USG scores +2.32 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
KVK
2.05
LEAGUE1.42
USG
0.65
USG concedes 1.40 fewer per 90
