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Model is split — no outcome stands clear.
Expected goals · CBK 1.9 · KWE 1.9 · 3.8 total
Expected goals are close (1.9 vs 1.9) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CBK's win chance, the blue ones for KWE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CBK goals | KWE 0 | KWE 1 | KWE 2 | KWE 3 | KWE 4 | KWE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBK 0 | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CBK 1 | 4% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| CBK 2 | 4% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| CBK 3 | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| CBK 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| CBK 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
CBK 40.2% · Draw 22.2% · KWE 37.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Cercle Brugge KSV have the edge at 40% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
Cercle Brugge KSV's home advantage is the separator — they score 1.3/game there, KVC Westerlo concede 2.8/game on the road.
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CBK
3-4-2-1KWE
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
how each side performs at their ground
KWE scores +1.10 more per 90
CBK concedes 0.77 fewer per 90
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
KWE sit 7 places higher in the table
Photo: V&A Dudush, CC BY 3.0