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Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 15:39 UTC · 13 NovSOU 48%Draw 25%MID 27%
Expected goals · SOU 1.7 · MID 1.2 · 2.9 total
SOU's attack (1.39x the league average) against MID's defence (0.82x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SOU's win chance, the blue ones for MID's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SOU goals | MID 0 | MID 1 | MID 2 | MID 3 | MID 4 | MID 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOU 0 | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| SOU 1 | 8% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| SOU 2 | 8% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| SOU 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SOU 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SOU 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SOU 47.7% · Draw 25.1% · MID 27.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Southampton have the edge at 48% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 37% of outcomes — 1-1 at 12% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
SOU
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Southampton
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Middlesbrough
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.557%
OVER 3.534%
BTTS59%
SOU CLEAN SHEET29%
MID CLEAN SHEET18%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SOU
MID
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SOU
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 0–1 to Preston last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1MID
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
SOU
1.79
LEAGUE1.35
MID
1.73
SOU scores +0.06 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SOU
1.05
LEAGUE1.35
MID
1.14
SOU concedes 0.09 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
SOU
8th
Mid-table on 24 points.
MID
2nd
In the automatic promotion places on 29 points.
MID sit 6 places higher in the table