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Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 15:03 UTC · 15 NovBIR 54%Draw 23%BOL 23%
Expected goals · BIR 1.9 · BOL 1.2 · 3.1 total
BIR's attack (1.19x the league average) against BOL's defence (1.09x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BIR's win chance, the blue ones for BOL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BIR goals | BOL 0 | BOL 1 | BOL 2 | BOL 3 | BOL 4 | BOL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIR 0 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BIR 1 | 8% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BIR 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BIR 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| BIR 4 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BIR 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BIR 53.9% · Draw 23.3% · BOL 22.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Birmingham City have the edge at 54% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 36% of outcomes — 1-1 at 11% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BIR
4-2-3-1BOL
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Birmingham City
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Bolton Wanderers
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.583%
OVER 2.560%
OVER 3.538%
BTTS60%
BIR CLEAN SHEET30%
BOL CLEAN SHEET14%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BIR
BOL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BIR
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1BOL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Derby last outSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
BIR
1.48
LEAGUE1.35
BOL
1.46
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
BIR
1.16
LEAGUE1.35
BOL
1.62
BIR concedes 0.46 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BIR
1st
Leading the table on 29 points.
BOL
18th
Mid-table on 17 points.
BIR sit 17 places higher in the table
