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Watford vs Blackburn Rovers
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 21:00 UTC · 13 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
WAT 39%Draw 30%BLK 32%
Expected goals · WAT 1.2 · BLK 1.1 · 2.3 total
Expected goals are close (1.2 vs 1.1) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for WAT's win chance, the blue ones for BLK's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| WAT goals | BLK 0 | BLK 1 | BLK 2 | BLK 3 | BLK 4 | BLK 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT 0 | 11% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| WAT 1 | 11% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| WAT 2 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| WAT 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| WAT 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| WAT 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
WAT 38.7% · Draw 29.7% · BLK 31.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
The draw at 30% is the most likely single outcome — neither side is above 39%.
THE ANGLE
Over 2.5 probability at 41% suggests goals but no clear winner — this looks like a 1-1 kind of night.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
WAT
4-2-3-1BLK
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Watford
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Blackburn Rovers
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 19 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.568%
OVER 2.541%
OVER 3.520%
BTTS48%
WAT CLEAN SHEET34%
BLK CLEAN SHEET29%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
WAT
BLK
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
WAT
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2BLK
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
WAT
0.94
LEAGUE1.35
BLK
1.12
BLK scores +0.18 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
WAT
1.56
LEAGUE1.35
BLK
1.35
BLK concedes 0.21 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
WAT
20th
Hovering above relegation on 15 points.
BLK
13th
Mid-table on 21 points.
BLK sit 7 places higher in the table