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Stoke City vs Millwall
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:55 UTC · 13 NovSTK 46%Draw 27%MIL 27%
Expected goals · STK 1.5 · MIL 1.1 · 2.6 total
STK's attack (0.89x, below the league average) against MIL's defence (1.15x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for STK's win chance, the blue ones for MIL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| STK goals | MIL 0 | MIL 1 | MIL 2 | MIL 3 | MIL 4 | MIL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STK 0 | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| STK 1 | 10% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| STK 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| STK 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| STK 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| STK 5 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
STK 45.8% · Draw 26.9% · MIL 27.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Stoke City have the edge at 46% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 39% of outcomes — 1-1 at 13% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
STK
3-4-3MIL
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Stoke City
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Surgery · Expected back 20 Jan
Millwall
Ankle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.575%
OVER 2.550%
OVER 3.528%
BTTS54%
STK CLEAN SHEET32%
MIL CLEAN SHEET22%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
STK
MIL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
STK
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0MIL
LOSING RUN
2
Lost 0–3 to West Brom last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
STK
1.21
LEAGUE1.35
MIL
1.54
MIL scores +0.33 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
STK
1.27
LEAGUE1.35
MIL
1.54
STK concedes 0.27 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
STK
3rd
In the promotion play-off places on 29 points.
MIL
16th
Mid-table on 18 points.
STK sit 13 places higher in the table
