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Burnley vs Birmingham City
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 11:38 UTC · 13 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
BUR 37%Draw 28%BIR 35%
Expected goals · BUR 1.3 · BIR 1.2 · 2.5 total
Expected goals are close (1.3 vs 1.2) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BUR's win chance, the blue ones for BIR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BUR goals | BIR 0 | BIR 1 | BIR 2 | BIR 3 | BIR 4 | BIR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUR 0 | 9% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BUR 1 | 10% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BUR 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BUR 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BUR 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BUR 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BUR 36.9% · Draw 28.5% · BIR 34.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Neither team separates themselves here — 37% for the slight favourite, 28% for the draw.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 28% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 1-1.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BUR
4-2-3-1BIR
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Burnley
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Birmingham City
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.572%
OVER 2.546%
OVER 3.524%
BTTS52%
BUR CLEAN SHEET29%
BIR CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BUR
BIR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BUR
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 4–5 to Cardiff last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
2
points · W0 D2 L3BIR
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
BUR
1.56
LEAGUE1.35
BIR
1.48
BUR scores +0.08 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
BUR
1.54
LEAGUE1.35
BIR
1.16
BIR concedes 0.38 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BUR
22nd
In the relegation zone on 10 points.
BIR
1st
Leading the table on 29 points.
BIR sit 21 places higher in the table