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Bolton Wanderers vs West Bromwich Albion
25 Nov · 19:45 UTC
Toughsheet Community Stadium
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:54 UTC · 13 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
BOL 33%Draw 27%WBA 40%
Expected goals · BOL 1.3 · WBA 1.5 · 2.8 total
WBA's attack (0.92x, below the league average) against BOL's defence (1.33x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BOL's win chance, the blue ones for WBA's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BOL goals | WBA 0 | WBA 1 | WBA 2 | WBA 3 | WBA 4 | WBA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOL 0 | 7% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BOL 1 | 7% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| BOL 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BOL 3 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BOL 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BOL 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BOL 32.9% · Draw 26.6% · WBA 40.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
West Bromwich Albion have the edge at 40% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 57% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BOL
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Bolton Wanderers
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
West Bromwich Albion
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Groin Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.578%
OVER 2.553%
OVER 3.531%
BTTS57%
BOL CLEAN SHEET23%
WBA CLEAN SHEET27%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BOL
WBA
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BOL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Derby last outSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3WBA
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
BOL
1.46
LEAGUE1.35
WBA
1.27
BOL scores +0.19 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
BOL
1.62
LEAGUE1.35
WBA
1.08
WBA concedes 0.54 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BOL
18th
Mid-table on 17 points.
WBA
5th
In the promotion play-off places on 28 points.
WBA sit 13 places higher in the table
