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Stoke City vs Birmingham City
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 15:39 UTC · 9 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
STK 36%Draw 30%BIR 34%
Expected goals · STK 1.2 · BIR 1.1 · 2.3 total
Expected goals are close (1.2 vs 1.1) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for STK's win chance, the blue ones for BIR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| STK goals | BIR 0 | BIR 1 | BIR 2 | BIR 3 | BIR 4 | BIR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STK 0 | 11% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| STK 1 | 11% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| STK 2 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| STK 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| STK 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| STK 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
STK 36.4% · Draw 30.1% · BIR 33.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
The draw at 30% is the most likely single outcome — neither side is above 36%.
THE ANGLE
Over 2.5 probability at 40% suggests goals but no clear winner — this looks like a 1-1 kind of night.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
STK
3-4-3BIR
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Stoke City
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Surgery · Expected back 20 Jan
Birmingham City
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.567%
OVER 2.540%
OVER 3.520%
BTTS47%
STK CLEAN SHEET33%
BIR CLEAN SHEET31%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
STK
BIR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
STK
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0BIR
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
STK
1.21
LEAGUE1.35
BIR
1.48
BIR scores +0.27 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
STK
1.27
LEAGUE1.35
BIR
1.16
BIR concedes 0.11 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
STK
3rd
In the promotion play-off places on 29 points.
BIR
1st
Leading the table on 29 points.
BIR sit 2 places higher in the table
