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Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 23:18 UTC · 9 NovMIL 58%Draw 23%QPR 19%
Expected goals · MIL 2.0 · QPR 1.0 · 3.0 total
MIL's attack (1.23x the league average) against QPR's defence (1.07x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.0.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MIL's win chance, the blue ones for QPR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MIL goals | QPR 0 | QPR 1 | QPR 2 | QPR 3 | QPR 4 | QPR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL 0 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MIL 1 | 9% | 11% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| MIL 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| MIL 3 | 6% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MIL 4 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MIL 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MIL 58.4% · Draw 22.7% · QPR 18.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Millwall are strong favourites at 58% — expected goals of 2.0 vs 1.0 reflect the gap.
THE ANGLE
Millwall are averaging 1.5 per game at home — the gap in quality shows in the numbers.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MIL
4-2-3-1QPR
4-4-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Millwall
Ankle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Queens Park Rangers
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.581%
OVER 2.558%
OVER 3.536%
BTTS56%
MIL CLEAN SHEET35%
QPR CLEAN SHEET14%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MIL
QPR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MIL
LOSING RUN
2
Lost 0–3 to West Brom last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3QPR
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
MIL
1.54
LEAGUE1.35
QPR
1.34
MIL scores +0.20 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MIL
1.54
LEAGUE1.35
QPR
1.53
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MIL
16th
Mid-table on 18 points.
QPR
9th
Mid-table on 24 points.
QPR sit 7 places higher in the table
