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Middlesbrough vs Bristol City
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:25 UTC · 8 NovMID 50%Draw 24%BRC 25%
Expected goals · MID 1.8 · BRC 1.2 · 3.0 total
MID's attack (1.22x the league average) against BRC's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MID's win chance, the blue ones for BRC's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MID goals | BRC 0 | BRC 1 | BRC 2 | BRC 3 | BRC 4 | BRC 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MID 0 | 5% | 5% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MID 1 | 8% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| MID 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| MID 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| MID 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MID 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MID 50.4% · Draw 24.2% · BRC 25.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Middlesbrough have the edge at 50% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Middlesbrough's home advantage is the separator — they score 1.7/game there, Bristol City concede 1.4/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MID
4-2-3-1BRC
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Middlesbrough
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Bristol City
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.582%
OVER 2.559%
OVER 3.537%
BTTS61%
MID CLEAN SHEET29%
BRC CLEAN SHEET16%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MID
BRC
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MID
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1BRC
LOSING RUN
2
Lost 0–5 to Norwich last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
MID
1.73
LEAGUE1.35
BRC
1.31
MID scores +0.42 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MID
1.14
LEAGUE1.35
BRC
1.43
MID concedes 0.29 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MID
2nd
In the automatic promotion places on 29 points.
BRC
17th
Mid-table on 18 points.
MID sit 15 places higher in the table