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Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:33 UTC · 9 NovBUR 49%Draw 27%BLK 24%
Expected goals · BUR 1.6 · BLK 1.0 · 2.6 total
BUR's attack (0.97x, below the league average) against BLK's defence (1.09x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BUR's win chance, the blue ones for BLK's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BUR goals | BLK 0 | BLK 1 | BLK 2 | BLK 3 | BLK 4 | BLK 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUR 0 | 8% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BUR 1 | 11% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BUR 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| BUR 3 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BUR 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BUR 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BUR 49.1% · Draw 26.7% · BLK 24.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Burnley have the edge at 49% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.6 vs 1.0 gives Burnley the edge but leaves room for Blackburn Rovers to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BUR
4-2-3-1BLK
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Burnley
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Blackburn Rovers
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 19 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.527%
BTTS52%
BUR CLEAN SHEET35%
BLK CLEAN SHEET21%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BUR
BLK
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BUR
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 4–5 to Cardiff last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
2
points · W0 D2 L3BLK
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
BUR
1.56
LEAGUE1.35
BLK
1.12
BUR scores +0.44 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
BUR
1.54
LEAGUE1.35
BLK
1.35
BLK concedes 0.19 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BUR
22nd
In the relegation zone on 10 points.
BLK
13th
Mid-table on 21 points.
BLK sit 9 places higher in the table