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PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 15:54 UTC · 15 NovPEC 25%Draw 26%AZ 49%
Expected goals · PEC 1.1 · AZ 1.7 · 2.8 total
AZ's attack (1.06x the league average) against PEC's defence (1.12x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for PEC's win chance, the blue ones for AZ's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| PEC goals | AZ 0 | AZ 1 | AZ 2 | AZ 3 | AZ 4 | AZ 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC 0 | 7% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| PEC 1 | 6% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| PEC 2 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| PEC 3 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| PEC 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| PEC 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
PEC 24.8% · Draw 25.8% · AZ 49.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.8%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
AZ Alkmaar have the edge at 49% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 38% of outcomes — 1-1 at 12% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
PEC
4-2-3-1AZ
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
PEC Zwolle
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
AZ Alkmaar
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.552%
OVER 3.530%
BTTS55%
PEC CLEAN SHEET19%
AZ CLEAN SHEET33%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
PEC
AZ
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
PEC
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1AZ
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
PEC
1.24
LEAGUE1.55
AZ
1.81
AZ scores +0.57 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
PEC
1.96
LEAGUE1.55
AZ
1.39
AZ concedes 0.57 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
PEC
13th
On 12 points.
AZ
5th
On 23 points.
AZ sit 8 places higher in the table