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NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 16:15 UTC · 15 NovNEC 24%Draw 21%TWE 54%
Expected goals · NEC 1.4 · TWE 2.2 · 3.6 total
TWE's attack (1.47x the league average) against NEC's defence (1.09x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.8.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for NEC's win chance, the blue ones for TWE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| NEC goals | TWE 0 | TWE 1 | TWE 2 | TWE 3 | TWE 4 | TWE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC 0 | 3% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| NEC 1 | 3% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
| NEC 2 | 3% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| NEC 3 | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| NEC 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| NEC 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NEC 24.2% · Draw 21.3% · TWE 54.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
FC Twente have the edge at 54% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.4 vs 2.2 gives FC Twente the edge but leaves room for NEC Nijmegen to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
NEC
3-4-2-1TWE
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
NEC Nijmegen
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
FC Twente
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.588%
OVER 2.571%
OVER 3.550%
BTTS69%
NEC CLEAN SHEET11%
TWE CLEAN SHEET24%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
NEC
TWE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
NEC
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
6
points · W1 D3 L1TWE
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
NEC
1.89
LEAGUE1.55
TWE
2.03
TWE scores +0.14 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
NEC
1.58
LEAGUE1.55
TWE
1.17
TWE concedes 0.41 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
NEC
11th
On 14 points.
TWE
4th
On 24 points.
TWE sit 7 places higher in the table