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Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 16:16 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
FOR 32%Draw 24%HEE 44%
Expected goals · FOR 1.5 · HEE 1.8 · 3.3 total
HEE's attack (1.08x the league average) against FOR's defence (1.19x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for FOR's win chance, the blue ones for HEE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| FOR goals | HEE 0 | HEE 1 | HEE 2 | HEE 3 | HEE 4 | HEE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOR 0 | 4% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| FOR 1 | 5% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| FOR 2 | 4% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| FOR 3 | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| FOR 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FOR 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
FOR 31.5% · Draw 24.1% · HEE 44.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Heerenveen have the edge at 44% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 37% of outcomes — 1-1 at 11% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
FOR
5-4-1HEE
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Fortuna Sittard
No absences reported.
Heerenveen
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.584%
OVER 2.563%
OVER 3.541%
BTTS65%
FOR CLEAN SHEET17%
HEE CLEAN SHEET23%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
FOR
HEE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
FOR
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
7
points · W1 D4 L0HEE
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
FOR
1.39
LEAGUE1.55
HEE
1.70
HEE scores +0.31 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
FOR
1.74
LEAGUE1.55
HEE
1.52
HEE concedes 0.22 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
FOR
7th
On 20 points.
HEE
6th
On 21 points.
HEE sit 1 place higher in the table