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Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 15:37 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
FEY 42%Draw 23%AJA 35%
Expected goals · FEY 1.8 · AJA 1.7 · 3.5 total
Expected goals are close (1.8 vs 1.7) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for FEY's win chance, the blue ones for AJA's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| FEY goals | AJA 0 | AJA 1 | AJA 2 | AJA 3 | AJA 4 | AJA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEY 0 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| FEY 1 | 5% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| FEY 2 | 5% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| FEY 3 | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| FEY 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FEY 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
FEY 42.0% · Draw 23.3% · AJA 34.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.8%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Feyenoord Rotterdam have the edge at 42% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Feyenoord Rotterdam's home advantage is the separator — they score 2.4/game there, Ajax Amsterdam concede 1.1/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
This is the De Klassieker — derby form rarely follows season-long patterns, and the model doesn't account for rivalry intensity.
DERBYDe Klassieker
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
FEY
4-3-3AJA
4-3-3Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Feyenoord Rotterdam
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Ajax Amsterdam
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Overload · Could return, due 20 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Groin Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Knee Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.587%
OVER 2.568%
OVER 3.547%
BTTS69%
FEY CLEAN SHEET19%
AJA CLEAN SHEET16%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
FEY
AJA
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
FEY
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 3–5 to Heerenveen last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1AJA
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
FEY
2.38
LEAGUE1.55
AJA
2.06
FEY scores +0.32 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
FEY
1.31
LEAGUE1.55
AJA
1.15
AJA concedes 0.16 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
FEY
2nd
On 25 points.
AJA
3rd
On 25 points.
FEY sit 1 place higher in the table