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FC Groningen vs Willem II
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:33 UTC · 13 NovGRO 73%Draw 16%WIL 11%
Expected goals · GRO 2.8 · WIL 1.1 · 3.9 total
GRO's attack (1.06x the league average) against WIL's defence (1.54x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for GRO's win chance, the blue ones for WIL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| GRO goals | WIL 0 | WIL 1 | WIL 2 | WIL 3 | WIL 4 | WIL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRO 0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| GRO 1 | 6% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GRO 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| GRO 3 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| GRO 4 | 5% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GRO 5 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
GRO 72.7% · Draw 15.8% · WIL 11.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (6.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
FC Groningen should control this — 73% win probability and 1.7 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Willem II concede 2.5 per game on the model's weighted record, and FC Groningen's most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
GRO
4-2-3-1WIL
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
FC Groningen
Suspended · Red card · Could return, due 21 Nov
Suspended · Could return, due 21 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Willem II
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 31 Oct
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.590%
OVER 2.574%
OVER 3.553%
BTTS62%
GRO CLEAN SHEET35%
WIL CLEAN SHEET6%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
GRO
WIL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
GRO
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 3–4 to AZ Alkmaar last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3WIL
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
1
points · W0 D1 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
GRO
1.69
LEAGUE1.55
WIL
1.00
GRO scores +0.69 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
GRO
1.79
LEAGUE1.55
WIL
2.48
GRO concedes 0.69 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
GRO
9th
On 15 points.
WIL
18th
On 3 points.
GRO sit 9 places higher in the table
