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Excelsior vs Telstar
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 02:34 UTC · 15 NovEXC 28%Draw 26%TEL 47%
Expected goals · EXC 1.2 · TEL 1.7 · 2.9 total
TEL's attack (0.83x, below the league average) against EXC's defence (1.46x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for EXC's win chance, the blue ones for TEL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| EXC goals | TEL 0 | TEL 1 | TEL 2 | TEL 3 | TEL 4 | TEL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXC 0 | 6% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| EXC 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| EXC 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| EXC 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| EXC 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| EXC 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
EXC 27.9% · Draw 25.5% · TEL 46.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Telstar have the edge at 47% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 58% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 12% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
Excelsior are on a 5-match losing streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A SKID · EXC5 losses in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
EXC
4-3-3Simon Janssen · Jan Plug · Casper Widell · Eric da Silva Moreira · Rick Meissen
Lennard Hartjes · Noah Naujoks · Irakli Yegoian · Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
Bench · 12
Garden, Bos, Vianen, Domínguez, Sulzbacher, Jahanbakhsh +6
TEL
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Excelsior
Suspended · Red card · Could return, due 21 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.579%
OVER 2.556%
OVER 3.533%
BTTS58%
EXC CLEAN SHEET19%
TEL CLEAN SHEET29%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
EXC
TEL
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
EXC
LOSING RUN
5
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
4
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5TEL
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
EXC
1.36
LEAGUE1.55
TEL
1.53
TEL scores +0.17 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
EXC
2.04
LEAGUE1.55
TEL
1.78
TEL concedes 0.26 fewer per 90