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NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 04:44 UTC · 9 NovNEC 21%Draw 18%PSV 61%
Expected goals · NEC 1.6 · PSV 2.8 · 4.4 total
PSV's attack (1.85x the league average) against NEC's defence (1.09x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for NEC's win chance, the blue ones for PSV's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| NEC goals | PSV 0 | PSV 1 | PSV 2 | PSV 3 | PSV 4 | PSV 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC 0 | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| NEC 1 | 2% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 3% |
| NEC 2 | 2% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
| NEC 3 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| NEC 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| NEC 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NEC 20.9% · Draw 17.9% · PSV 61.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (6.8%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
PSV Eindhoven should control this — 61% win probability and 3.1 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.1 per game at away — the gap in quality shows in the numbers.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
NEC
3-4-2-1PSV
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
NEC Nijmegen
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
PSV Eindhoven
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 10 Jan
ACL Knee Injury · Expected back 24 May
Unknown
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.594%
OVER 2.582%
OVER 3.564%
BTTS76%
NEC CLEAN SHEET6%
PSV CLEAN SHEET19%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
NEC
PSV
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
NEC
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
6
points · W1 D3 L1PSV
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
NEC
1.89
LEAGUE1.55
PSV
3.11
PSV scores +1.22 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
NEC
1.58
LEAGUE1.55
PSV
1.26
PSV concedes 0.32 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
NEC
11th
On 14 points.
PSV
1st
Leading the table on 26 points.
PSV sit 10 places higher in the table