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Go Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 23:12 UTC · 9 NovGAE 55%Draw 22%FOR 23%
Expected goals · GAE 2.1 · FOR 1.3 · 3.4 total
GAE's attack (1.17x the league average) against FOR's defence (1.05x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.8.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for GAE's win chance, the blue ones for FOR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| GAE goals | FOR 0 | FOR 1 | FOR 2 | FOR 3 | FOR 4 | FOR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAE 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GAE 1 | 7% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| GAE 2 | 7% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| GAE 3 | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| GAE 4 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GAE 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
GAE 54.9% · Draw 22.1% · FOR 23.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Go Ahead Eagles have the edge at 55% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 2.1 vs 1.3 gives Go Ahead Eagles the edge but leaves room for Fortuna Sittard to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
GAE
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Go Ahead Eagles
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Fortuna Sittard
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.586%
OVER 2.566%
OVER 3.544%
BTTS64%
GAE CLEAN SHEET27%
FOR CLEAN SHEET12%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
GAE
FOR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
GAE
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2FOR
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
7
points · W1 D4 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
GAE
1.69
LEAGUE1.55
FOR
1.39
GAE scores +0.30 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
GAE
1.76
LEAGUE1.55
FOR
1.74
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
GAE
8th
On 17 points.
FOR
7th
On 20 points.
FOR sit 1 place higher in the table
