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Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Excelsior
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 11:02 UTC · 9 NovFEY 67%Draw 18%EXC 15%
Expected goals · FEY 2.6 · EXC 1.2 · 3.8 total
FEY's attack (1.39x the league average) against EXC's defence (1.08x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for FEY's win chance, the blue ones for EXC's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| FEY goals | EXC 0 | EXC 1 | EXC 2 | EXC 3 | EXC 4 | EXC 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEY 0 | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FEY 1 | 6% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| FEY 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| FEY 3 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| FEY 4 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FEY 5 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
FEY 67.3% · Draw 17.9% · EXC 14.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (4.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Feyenoord Rotterdam should control this — 67% win probability and 2.4 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Feyenoord Rotterdam scoring 2.4/game at home, Excelsior scoring 1.4/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
Excelsior are on a 5-match losing streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A SKID · EXC5 losses in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
FEY
4-3-3EXC
4-3-3Simon Janssen · Jan Plug · Casper Widell · Eric da Silva Moreira · Rick Meissen
Lennard Hartjes · Noah Naujoks · Irakli Yegoian · Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
Bench · 12
Garden, Bos, Vianen, Domínguez, Sulzbacher, Jahanbakhsh +6
Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Feyenoord Rotterdam
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Excelsior
Suspended · Red card · Could return, due 21 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.589%
OVER 2.572%
OVER 3.551%
BTTS64%
FEY CLEAN SHEET31%
EXC CLEAN SHEET8%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
FEY
EXC
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
FEY
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 3–5 to Heerenveen last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1EXC
LOSING RUN
5
Lost 0–1 to GO Ahead Eagles last outGOAL DROUGHT
4
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
FEY
2.38
LEAGUE1.55
EXC
1.36
FEY scores +1.02 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
FEY
1.31
LEAGUE1.55
EXC
2.04
FEY concedes 0.73 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
FEY
2nd
On 25 points.
EXC
15th
On 11 points.
FEY sit 13 places higher in the table