Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
FC Twente vs Willem II
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 05:24 UTC · 9 NovTWE 85%Draw 11%WIL 5%
Expected goals · TWE 3.1 · WIL 0.7 · 3.8 total
TWE's attack (1.20x the league average) against WIL's defence (1.54x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 2.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for TWE's win chance, the blue ones for WIL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| TWE goals | WIL 0 | WIL 1 | WIL 2 | WIL 3 | WIL 4 | WIL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWE 0 | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TWE 1 | 6% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TWE 2 | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| TWE 3 | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| TWE 4 | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| TWE 5 | 6% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
TWE 84.6% · Draw 10.6% · WIL 4.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (9.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
FC Twente are strong favourites at 85% — expected goals of 3.2 vs 0.7 reflect the gap.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: FC Twente scoring 2.0/game at home, Willem II scoring 1.0/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
TWE
4-2-3-1WIL
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.590%
OVER 2.574%
OVER 3.554%
BTTS48%
TWE CLEAN SHEET50%
WIL CLEAN SHEET4%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
TWE
WIL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
TWE
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1WIL
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
1
points · W0 D1 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
TWE
2.03
LEAGUE1.55
WIL
1.00
TWE scores +1.03 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
TWE
1.17
LEAGUE1.55
WIL
2.48
TWE concedes 1.31 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
TWE
4th
On 24 points.
WIL
18th
On 3 points.
TWE sit 14 places higher in the table
