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FC Groningen vs Heerenveen
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 11:17 UTC · 9 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
GRO 42%Draw 23%HEE 35%
Expected goals · GRO 1.9 · HEE 1.7 · 3.6 total
GRO's attack (1.06x the league average) against HEE's defence (1.04x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for GRO's win chance, the blue ones for HEE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| GRO goals | HEE 0 | HEE 1 | HEE 2 | HEE 3 | HEE 4 | HEE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRO 0 | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| GRO 1 | 5% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| GRO 2 | 5% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| GRO 3 | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| GRO 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| GRO 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
GRO 41.9% · Draw 22.9% · HEE 35.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
FC Groningen have the edge at 42% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 36% of outcomes — 1-1 at 9% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
GRO
4-2-3-1HEE
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
FC Groningen
Suspended · Red card · Could return, due 21 Nov
Suspended · Could return, due 21 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Heerenveen
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.588%
OVER 2.570%
OVER 3.548%
BTTS70%
GRO CLEAN SHEET18%
HEE CLEAN SHEET15%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
GRO
HEE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
GRO
LOSING RUN
2
Lost 3–4 to AZ Alkmaar last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3HEE
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
GRO
1.69
LEAGUE1.55
HEE
1.70
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
GRO
1.79
LEAGUE1.55
HEE
1.52
HEE concedes 0.27 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
GRO
9th
On 15 points.
HEE
6th
On 21 points.
HEE sit 3 places higher in the table
