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Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 13:18 UTC · 9 NovAJA 74%Draw 17%ADO 9%
Expected goals · AJA 2.4 · ADO 0.7 · 3.1 total
AJA's attack (1.16x the league average) against ADO's defence (1.21x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for AJA's win chance, the blue ones for ADO's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| AJA goals | ADO 0 | ADO 1 | ADO 2 | ADO 3 | ADO 4 | ADO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJA 0 | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJA 1 | 10% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJA 2 | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJA 3 | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJA 4 | 6% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJA 5 | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
AJA 73.7% · Draw 17.1% · ADO 9.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (3.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Ajax Amsterdam at 74% — ADO Den Haag concede 2.0 per game, and the model sees that.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Ajax Amsterdam scoring 2.1/game at home, ADO Den Haag scoring 1.1/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
AJA
4-3-3ADO
4-4-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Ajax Amsterdam
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Overload · Could return, due 20 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Groin Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Knee Injury
ADO Den Haag
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.583%
OVER 2.561%
OVER 3.539%
BTTS48%
AJA CLEAN SHEET47%
ADO CLEAN SHEET9%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
AJA
ADO
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
AJA
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0ADO
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.55SCORED · PER 90
AJA
2.06
LEAGUE1.55
ADO
1.15
AJA scores +0.91 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
AJA
1.15
LEAGUE1.55
ADO
1.99
AJA concedes 0.84 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
AJA
3rd
On 25 points.
ADO
17th
On 9 points.
AJA sit 14 places higher in the table