Jacob Ondrejka
2'
0–1
Photo: Jesperverbruggen, CC BY-SA 4.0| Minute | Side | Scorer | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2' | away | Jacob Ondrejka | 0-1 |
| 9' | home | Mexx Meerdink | 1-1 |
| 47' | away | Brynjólfur Willumsson | 1-2 |
| 54' | away | Thom Van Bergen | 1-3 |
| 61' | home | Ayoub Oufkir | 2-3 |
| 76' | home | Mateo Chávez | 3-3 |
| 90'+1' | home | Mexx Meerdink | 4-3 |
Win probability from OneTouch's in-running model (CC-LIVE-1.2+prior): score and clock only, from our pre-match call. Not xG.
Forecast Verdict
Top pick correctWe said
Model at kick-off: AZ 60% · Draw 19% · GRO 21%
Actual
OneTouch Forecast · dc-v2.0
AZ Alkmaar won; our pre-match call put the chance of that at 60%. AZ Alkmaar had more shots (19–9) and the same number on target (5–5).
Pre-match call frozen 8 Nov 2026 · model dc-v2.0
Tactical shift
Jacob Ondrejka
2'
0–1
Mexx Meerdink
Assist · Ro-Zangelo Daal
9'
1–1
Brynjólfur Willumsson
Assist · Jacob Ondrejka
47'
1–2
Thom Van Bergen
54'
1–3
Marco Rente
Booked
58'
Penalty Missed
Mexx Meerdink
59'
Kees Smit
On for Valdemar Byskov
60'
Pelle Clement
Booked
61'
Ayoub Oufkir
Assist · Mexx Meerdink
61'
2–3
Wouter Prins
On for Márk Csinger
73'
Mateo Chávez
76'
3–3
Tyrique Mercera
On for Jorg Schreuders
79'
Calvin Stengs
On for Ro-Zangelo Daal
84'
Etienne Vaessen
Booked
85'
Etienne Vaessen
Sent off
88'
Nils Eggens
On for Brynjólfur Willumsson
90'
Mexx Meerdink
91'
4–3
Ratings are out of 10. marks an OneTouch estimate, not a confirmed grade. Tap a player for details.
Match DNA
Chaos Match
High-event, low-control. Structure broke down repeatedly — pure entertainment.
28 shots
Expected goals over time
accuracy · 26%
kill rate · 21%
accuracy · 56%
kill rate · 33%
FC Groningen turned 33% of shots into goals to AZ Alkmaar's 21%.
Shots on Target
Attack
xG