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Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 22:22 UTC · 12 NovSUN 50%Draw 28%JAG 22%
Expected goals · SUN 1.5 · JAG 0.9 · 2.4 total
SUN's attack (0.97x, below the league average) against JAG's defence (1.05x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SUN's win chance, the blue ones for JAG's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SUN goals | JAG 0 | JAG 1 | JAG 2 | JAG 3 | JAG 4 | JAG 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUN 0 | 10% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SUN 1 | 12% | 13% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| SUN 2 | 10% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SUN 3 | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SUN 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SUN 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SUN 50.0% · Draw 27.8% · JAG 22.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0+cup
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Sunderland have the edge at 50% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.6 vs 0.9 gives Sunderland the edge but leaves room for Jagiellonia Bialystok to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
Cup dynamics in the Europa League — rotation and giant-killing patterns sit outside the model's league-form data.
CUPEuropa League
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
SUN
4-2-3-1JAG
4-2-3-1Guilherme Montóia · Yuki Kobayashi · Bernardo Vital · Rodrigo Conceição
Taras Romanczuk · Ferslev Anders Klynge · Kajetan Szmyt · Jesús Imaz · Ousmane Sow
Bench · 12
Abramowicz, Konstantopoulos, Jóźwiak, Stojinović, Lozano, Wdowik +6
Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Sunderland
Physical Discomfort · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Jagiellonia Bialystok
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 22 Nov
Hernia · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.571%
OVER 2.546%
OVER 3.523%
BTTS48%
SUN CLEAN SHEET40%
JAG CLEAN SHEET22%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SUN
JAG
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SUN
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Dinamo Zagreb last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L1JAG
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Levski Sofia last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
SUN
0.65
LEAGUE1.40
JAG
0.31
SUN scores +0.34 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SUN
1.06
LEAGUE1.40
JAG
1.98
SUN concedes 0.92 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
SUN
11th
On 7 points.
JAG
29th
On 3 points.
SUN sit 18 places higher in the table
