Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:13 UTC · 13 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
SPP 39%Draw 29%AZ 32%
Expected goals · SPP 1.4 · AZ 1.2 · 2.6 total
SPP's attack (0.90x, below the league average) against AZ's defence (0.99x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SPP's win chance, the blue ones for AZ's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SPP goals | AZ 0 | AZ 1 | AZ 2 | AZ 3 | AZ 4 | AZ 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPP 0 | 8% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| SPP 1 | 9% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| SPP 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| SPP 3 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SPP 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SPP 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SPP 39.4% · Draw 28.9% · AZ 31.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0+cup
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
The draw at 29% is the most likely single outcome — neither side is above 39%.
THE ANGLE
The forecast is this close because neither side has separated themselves — form lines are essentially level.
THE CAVEAT
Cup dynamics in the Europa League — rotation and giant-killing patterns sit outside the model's league-form data.
CUPEuropa League
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
SPP
4-2-3-1AZ
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Sparta Prague
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Knock Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
AZ Alkmaar
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.549%
OVER 3.527%
BTTS53%
SPP CLEAN SHEET30%
AZ CLEAN SHEET25%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SPP
AZ
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SPP
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Bournemouth last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
1
points · W0 D1 L2AZ
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Juventus last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
SPP
0.93
LEAGUE1.40
AZ
1.02
AZ scores +0.09 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SPP
1.76
LEAGUE1.40
AZ
1.36
AZ concedes 0.40 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
SPP
22nd
On 4 points.
AZ
14th
On 6 points.
AZ sit 8 places higher in the table