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Ferencvaros vs NK Celje
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 11:41 UTC · 13 NovFER 55%Draw 24%NKC 21%
Expected goals · FER 2.1 · NKC 1.2 · 3.3 total
FER's attack (1.10x the league average) against NKC's defence (1.24x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.9.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for FER's win chance, the blue ones for NKC's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| FER goals | NKC 0 | NKC 1 | NKC 2 | NKC 3 | NKC 4 | NKC 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FER 0 | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FER 1 | 7% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| FER 2 | 8% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| FER 3 | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| FER 4 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FER 5 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
FER 55.3% · Draw 23.7% · NKC 21.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0+cup
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Ferencvaros at 55% — NK Celje concede 2.2 per game, and the model sees that.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 2.2 vs 1.1 leaves little room for NK Celje to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
Cup dynamics in the Europa League — rotation and giant-killing patterns sit outside the model's league-form data.
CUPEuropa League
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
FER
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Ferencvaros
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
NK Celje
Suspended · Red card · Could return, due 16 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 20 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.584%
OVER 2.561%
OVER 3.541%
BTTS57%
FER CLEAN SHEET31%
NKC CLEAN SHEET13%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
FER
NKC
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
FER
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L0NKC
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
FER
1.65
LEAGUE1.40
NKC
1.39
FER scores +0.26 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
FER
1.08
LEAGUE1.40
NKC
2.17
FER concedes 1.09 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
FER
3rd
On 12 points.
NKC
25th
On 4 points.
FER sit 22 places higher in the table