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Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer Leverkusen
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 00:18 UTC · 13 NovDZG 18%Draw 22%B04 60%
Expected goals · DZG 1.2 · B04 2.3 · 3.5 total
B04's attack (1.80x the league average) against DZG's defence (1.14x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.1.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for DZG's win chance, the blue ones for B04's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| DZG goals | B04 0 | B04 1 | B04 2 | B04 3 | B04 4 | B04 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DZG 0 | 4% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
| DZG 1 | 3% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
| DZG 2 | 2% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| DZG 3 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| DZG 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| DZG 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
DZG 18.3% · Draw 21.6% · B04 60.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (3.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0+cup
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Bayer Leverkusen at 60% — Dinamo Zagreb concede 1.5 per game, and the model sees that.
THE ANGLE
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.0 per game at away — the gap in quality shows in the numbers.
THE CAVEAT
Cup dynamics in the Europa League — rotation and giant-killing patterns sit outside the model's league-form data.
CUPEuropa League
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
DZG
4-1-4-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Dinamo Zagreb
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Bayer Leverkusen
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Illness · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.587%
OVER 2.565%
OVER 3.546%
BTTS58%
DZG CLEAN SHEET11%
B04 CLEAN SHEET32%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
DZG
B04
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
DZG
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L1B04
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 0–1 to Marseille last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
DZG
1.46
LEAGUE1.40
B04
2.03
B04 scores +0.57 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
DZG
1.49
LEAGUE1.40
B04
0.35
B04 concedes 1.14 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
DZG
9th
On 7 points.
B04
7th
On 9 points.
B04 sit 2 places higher in the table