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Celta Vigo vs Bournemouth
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 22:30 UTC · 12 NovCEL 27%Draw 26%BOU 47%
Expected goals · CEL 1.3 · BOU 1.8 · 3.1 total
BOU's attack (1.30x the league average) against CEL's defence (1.18x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CEL's win chance, the blue ones for BOU's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CEL goals | BOU 0 | BOU 1 | BOU 2 | BOU 3 | BOU 4 | BOU 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEL 0 | 6% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| CEL 1 | 5% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| CEL 2 | 4% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| CEL 3 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CEL 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CEL 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CEL 27.1% · Draw 26.1% · BOU 46.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0+cup
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
AFC Bournemouth have the edge at 47% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 36% of outcomes — 1-1 at 12% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
Cup dynamics in the Europa League — rotation and giant-killing patterns sit outside the model's league-form data.
CUPEuropa League
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CEL
3-4-3BOU
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Celta Vigo
Knee Surgery · Could return, due 20 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Tendon Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 20 Jan
AFC Bournemouth
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Feb
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.582%
OVER 2.558%
OVER 3.537%
BTTS59%
CEL CLEAN SHEET17%
BOU CLEAN SHEET27%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CEL
BOU
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CEL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Union St. Gilloise last outSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L3BOU
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
CEL
1.33
LEAGUE1.40
BOU
2.77
BOU scores +1.44 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CEL
1.44
LEAGUE1.40
BOU
0.49
BOU concedes 0.95 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
CEL
27th
On 3 points.
BOU
2nd
On 12 points.
BOU sit 25 places higher in the table
