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Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy 1969
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 15:32 UTC · 15 NovZEL 53%Draw 27%TVE 20%
Expected goals · ZEL 1.6 · TVE 0.9 · 2.5 total
ZEL's attack (1.08x the league average) against TVE's defence (0.93x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ZEL's win chance, the blue ones for TVE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ZEL goals | TVE 0 | TVE 1 | TVE 2 | TVE 3 | TVE 4 | TVE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZEL 0 | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 1 | 13% | 13% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 2 | 11% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 3 | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ZEL 52.6% · Draw 27.0% · TVE 20.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Machida Zelvia have the edge at 53% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Machida Zelvia's home advantage is the separator — they score 2.1/game there, Tokyo Verdy 1969 concede 1.6/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
ZEL
3-4-2-1TVE
4-4-2Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.571%
OVER 2.544%
OVER 3.523%
BTTS47%
ZEL CLEAN SHEET42%
TVE CLEAN SHEET21%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ZEL
TVE
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ZEL
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
3
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
5
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W2 D3 L0TVE
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
ZEL
2.08
LEAGUE1.40
TVE
0.89
ZEL scores +1.19 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ZEL
0.67
LEAGUE1.40
TVE
1.57
ZEL concedes 0.90 fewer per 90
