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Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-Pulse
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:05 UTC · 13 NovOKA 46%Draw 28%SHI 26%
Expected goals · OKA 1.4 · SHI 1.0 · 2.4 total
OKA's attack (0.82x, below the league average) against SHI's defence (1.13x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for OKA's win chance, the blue ones for SHI's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| OKA goals | SHI 0 | SHI 1 | SHI 2 | SHI 3 | SHI 4 | SHI 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKA 0 | 9% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| OKA 1 | 12% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| OKA 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| OKA 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| OKA 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| OKA 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
OKA 46.3% · Draw 28.1% · SHI 25.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Fagiano Okayama have the edge at 46% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Fagiano Okayama are favoured but the draw at 28% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
OKA
3-4-2-1SHI
4-3-3Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.571%
OVER 2.544%
OVER 3.523%
BTTS49%
OKA CLEAN SHEET37%
SHI CLEAN SHEET24%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
OKA
SHI
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
OKA
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3SHI
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
4
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
1
points · W0 D1 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
OKA
1.13
LEAGUE1.40
SHI
0.71
OKA scores +0.42 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
OKA
1.61
LEAGUE1.40
SHI
1.72
OKA concedes 0.11 fewer per 90