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JEF United Ichihara-Chiba vs Nagoya Grampus
25 Nov · 10:00 UTC
Fukuda Denshi Arena
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 22:41 UTC · 13 NovJEF 49%Draw 27%NAG 24%
Expected goals · JEF 1.5 · NAG 1.0 · 2.5 total
JEF's attack (0.89x, below the league average) against NAG's defence (1.10x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for JEF's win chance, the blue ones for NAG's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| JEF goals | NAG 0 | NAG 1 | NAG 2 | NAG 3 | NAG 4 | NAG 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEF 0 | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| JEF 1 | 11% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| JEF 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| JEF 3 | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| JEF 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| JEF 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
JEF 48.8% · Draw 27.2% · NAG 24.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
JEF United Ichihara-Chiba are favoured at 49% but the draw at 27% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.5 vs 1.0 gives JEF United Ichihara-Chiba the edge but leaves room for Nagoya Grampus to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
JEF
4-4-2NAG
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.573%
OVER 2.546%
OVER 3.525%
BTTS50%
JEF CLEAN SHEET37%
NAG CLEAN SHEET22%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
JEF
NAG
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
JEF
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1NAG
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
JEF
1.18
LEAGUE1.40
NAG
1.07
JEF scores +0.11 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
JEF
1.63
LEAGUE1.40
NAG
1.64
Defences level on season average