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Mito Hollyhock vs Tokyo Verdy 1969
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 23:23 UTC · 13 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
MHO 29%Draw 29%TVE 42%
Expected goals · MHO 1.1 · TVE 1.3 · 2.4 total
TVE's attack (0.88x, below the league average) against MHO's defence (1.20x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MHO's win chance, the blue ones for TVE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MHO goals | TVE 0 | TVE 1 | TVE 2 | TVE 3 | TVE 4 | TVE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MHO 0 | 10% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| MHO 1 | 9% | 14% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| MHO 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MHO 3 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MHO 4 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MHO 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MHO 29.3% · Draw 29.1% · TVE 41.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Tokyo Verdy 1969 are favoured at 42% but the draw at 29% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 40% of outcomes — 1-1 at 14% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
Mito Hollyhock are on a 5-match losing streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A SKID · MHO5 losses in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MHO
4-4-2TVE
4-4-2Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.570%
OVER 2.543%
OVER 3.522%
BTTS49%
MHO CLEAN SHEET27%
TVE CLEAN SHEET35%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MHO
TVE
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MHO
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
5
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5TVE
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
MHO
0.81
LEAGUE1.40
TVE
0.89
TVE scores +0.08 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MHO
1.91
LEAGUE1.40
TVE
1.57
TVE concedes 0.34 fewer per 90