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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F. Marinos
21 Nov · 05:00 UTC
Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 07:12 UTC · 13 NovSAN 63%Draw 23%YOK 14%
Expected goals · SAN 1.9 · YOK 0.8 · 2.7 total
SAN's attack (1.53x the league average) against YOK's defence (0.80x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.1.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SAN's win chance, the blue ones for YOK's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SAN goals | YOK 0 | YOK 1 | YOK 2 | YOK 3 | YOK 4 | YOK 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN 0 | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SAN 1 | 12% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SAN 2 | 12% | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SAN 3 | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SAN 4 | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SAN 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SAN 63.5% · Draw 22.6% · YOK 13.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Sanfrecce Hiroshima should control this — 63% win probability and 2.3 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.9 vs 0.8 leaves little room for Yokohama F. Marinos to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
SAN
3-4-2-1YOK
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.575%
OVER 2.550%
OVER 3.528%
BTTS47%
SAN CLEAN SHEET46%
YOK CLEAN SHEET15%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SAN
YOK
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SAN
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
3
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1YOK
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
7
points · W1 D4 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
SAN
2.26
LEAGUE1.40
YOK
1.50
SAN scores +0.76 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SAN
0.71
LEAGUE1.40
YOK
1.06
SAN concedes 0.35 fewer per 90