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Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 23:09 UTC · 12 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
GAM 39%Draw 26%OKA 35%
Expected goals · GAM 1.5 · OKA 1.4 · 2.9 total
Expected goals are close (1.5 vs 1.4) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for GAM's win chance, the blue ones for OKA's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| GAM goals | OKA 0 | OKA 1 | OKA 2 | OKA 3 | OKA 4 | OKA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAM 0 | 6% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| GAM 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| GAM 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| GAM 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| GAM 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GAM 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
GAM 38.8% · Draw 26.1% · OKA 35.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
This looks level with over 2.5 goals at 56% — open but no clear winner.
THE ANGLE
The forecast is this close because neither side has separated themselves — form lines are essentially level.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
GAM
4-2-3-1OKA
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.579%
OVER 2.556%
OVER 3.533%
BTTS59%
GAM CLEAN SHEET24%
OKA CLEAN SHEET22%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
GAM
OKA
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
GAM
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 2–3 last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
6
points · W1 D3 L1OKA
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
GAM
1.14
LEAGUE1.40
OKA
1.13
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
GAM
1.70
LEAGUE1.40
OKA
1.61
OKA concedes 0.09 fewer per 90
